Setting ORATS Apart with Historical Volatility Research

Our proprietary historical volatilities are calculated from intraday data market information produce more accurate daily volatilities than traditional methods like close-to-close. From these accurate volatilities, we produce effective forecasts of volatility and other useful datasets.

HVvsIVwCandle

Asset Coverage

ORATS covers all US equity options including stocks, ETFs, and indexes--nearly 5000 tickers. We characterize each symbol as a stock, ETF or index and we determine whether it is easy or hard to borrow and a dividend payer or not.

Historical Volatility Research

To make a forecast of a variable, one must first take measurements of it. The common methods of measuring underlying volatility are close-to-close, high-low, high-low-close and GARCH. Over many years of trading, Matt Amberson, our President, and CEO, was never satisfied with any these approaches. Based on our extensive analysis, we believe we have found the most accurate historical volatility measure available using intraday analysis. Another advantage of intraday volatility readings is that a one-day volatility can be calculated. The use of shorter term volatilities can help see a change in volatility before longer term measurements. ORATS utilizes a modified open high low close intraday volatility calculation.

Related Data Points in our API: or1dHv, or5dHv, cls5dHv

Ex-Earnings Historical Volatility

Close-to-close and ORATS intraday historical volatilities are also presented with the day of and day after earnings taken out of the calculation. These calculations are important as they can be compared over time or when analyzing a non-earnings expiration.

Related Data Point(s): xErnOr5dHv, xErncls5dHv

Implied Volatility & Historical Volatility Ratios

An important indicator is how the implied volatility is trading in relation to the historical volatility. ORATS presents this and another special calculation related ETF calculation. It is useful to compare that ratio to the related ETF ratio to see if the ratio is high or low.

Related Data Points from our Data API:

ivAvg1mXErnHvRatio = IV 30-day / HV20xErn Ratio current vs monthly average

ivAvg1yXErnHvRatio= IV 30-day / HV20xErn Ratio current vs yearly average

ivStdev1yHvXErnRatio= Stdev of IV 30-day / HV20xErn Ratio current vs monthly average

etfIvXErnHvRatio= IV 30-day / HV20xErn Ratio divided by ETF IV 30-day / HV20d ratio

etfIvAvg1mHvXErnRatio= IV 30-day / HV20xErn Ratio divided by ETF IV 30-day / HV20d ratio month average

etfIvAvg1yHvXErnRatio= IV 30-day / HV20xErn Ratio divided by ETF IV 30-day / HV20d ratio year average

etfIvStdev1yXErnHvRatio= Stdev of IV 30-day / HV20xErn Ratio divided by ETF IV 30-day / HV20d ratio year average

related posts

Options Secrets: The Important Signals from Forward Implied Volatilities
Mar
08
Volatility, Options Signals

Options Secrets: The Important Signals from Forward Implied Volatilities

We discussed the calculations of forward volatilities and flat forward volatilities in this...

Read Post
Trouble Ahead for the Market? Signals from the Options Market Say So
Mar
07
Volatility, contango, Options Signals

Trouble Ahead for the Market? Signals from the Options Market Say So

Warning signs from the options market started Monday when the ORATS early warning service...

Read Post

We're here, if you need us.

Still curious how we can help you?




LET'S CHAT