With only 2% of firms we track reported, volatility sellers are doing better than buyers for the earnings announcement trade. We measure the implied earnings move from the straddle and compare it to the actual move. Currently, 13 stocks have reported of the 739 we are tracking. The return to options traders is 74% with 100% being break even. 46% of the stocks have been profitable.
The top of the table above is the current season and the bottom part is the historical average of the past 12 earnings cycles. Normally this week #1 is the least profitable week historically averaging 87%.
There is a long way to go, but the start has been slow for this earnings cycle.