Dividends
Saturday, March 2nd 2019
Dividend Service Details
Learn the details of dividend forecasting, seasonal growth in dividends, special dividends, estimated and confirmed dividends.
Summary
ORATS offers a dividend information service with files containing expected ex-dividend dates and forecasted dividend amounts for the next 2.67 years for all stocks with US exchange listed options. The service includes dividend forecasting, seasonal growth, special dividends, estimated and confirmed dividends, and conforms to the OCC "12.5" rule on special dividends. The data is delivered in space-delimited text files that are updated throughout the day.
ORATS offers a wealth of dividend information. The main file is our:
ORATSStockDivForecasts.txt
ORATS provides a daily ftp download service with all expected ex-div dates and forecasted dividend amounts for the next 2.67 years for all stocks with US exchange listed options.
The projected dividend dates and amounts take into account seasonal irregularities observed in the past. The dividend amount forecasts also use historical patterns to forecast future dividend growth (or decline) and to forecast how many periods a dividend will remain at a particular amount before being adjusted by the board. What makes ORATS’ feed stand out from the pack is our scrutiny of the projected amounts. We compare the computed projected dividend amount against what is being implied in the current options market. If the projected amount is not verified by the current market environment, it is tempered. Furthermore, the forecasts are split-adjusted and are converted to USD in the case when the dividend is expected in a foreign currency. This data is delivered in a space-delimited text file that contains the data for all stocks.
Dividend forecast files are updated throughout the day. File times (CST): 6:10am,8:10am,10:0am,12:10pm,2:10pm,4:10pm,6:10pm
Example data: AA 2019-02-02 0.05 4
From left to right, Symbol (AA), Expected Ex-Date(2019-02-02), Expected Amount (0.05), Annual Payout Frequency (4)
Frequencies: The frequency column will be denoted with the following identifiers describing the symbol's observed dividend payment frequency on an annualized basis:
0=Special
1=Annual
2=Semi-Annual
3=3x/Year
4=Quarterly
12=Monthly
ORATSStockDivHistGrowth.txt
ORATS provides a daily ftp download service (free for all paying dividend service subscribers) with all expected ex-div dates and forecasted dividend amounts for the next 2.67 years for all stocks with US exchange listed options. The projected dividend dates and amounts take into account seasonal irregularities observed in the past. The dividend amount forecasts also use historical patterns to forecast future dividend growth (or decline) and to forecast how many periods a dividend will remain at a particular amount before being adjusted by the board. Furthermore, the forecasts are split-adjusted and are converted to USD in the case when the dividend is expected in a foreign currency. This data is delivered in a space-delimited text file that contains the data for all stocks.
NOTE : This file contains ORATS’ raw proprietary dividend forecast amounts. The dividend payout amounts in this file are NOT compared to the dividend amount being implied in the current options marketplace.
ORATSDividends.txt
ORATS provides a daily ftp download service (free for all paying dividend service subscribers) that lists the closest upcoming dividend ex-dividend date, expected payment amount and denotes if the data is Estimated ("E"), Acknowledged ("A"), Acknowledged by one or more, but not all sources(“I”) or Overridden ("O"). The overridden designation is reserved for names that have exhibited dividend payment amounts and/or frequencies that do not perform well with our forecasting methodologies. Therefore, we monitor the name manually until such a time as it can be resubmitted to the general population.
The data is for all dividend-paying stocks with US exchange listed options.
Example data and explanations:
Unconfirmed
AAP 2019-03-24 0.06 E
From left to right, Symbol (AAP), Expected closest Ex-Date(2019-03-24), Expected Amount (0.06), Confirmation Identifier (E = "Expected")
Confirmed
ABT 2019-01-12 0.44 A
From left to right, Symbol (ABT), Expected closest Ex-Date(2019-01-12), Expected Amount (0.44), Confirmation Identifier (A = "Announced")
Confirmed, but not by all sources
XYZ 2019-01-12 0.44 I
From left to right, Symbol (XYZ), Expected closest Ex-Date(2019-01-12), Expected Amount (0.44), Confirmation Identifier (I = "One or more, but not all sources confirm date Announced")
Special coverage initiated by ORATS
AB 2019-02-17 0.33 O
From left to right, Symbol (AB), Expected closest Ex-Date(2019-02-17), Expected Amount (0.33), Confirmation Identifier (O = "ORATS")
ORATSSpecialDividends.txt
GORO 2011-01-12 0.03
LPHI 2011-01-27 0.04
STD 2011-01-12 0.13
From left to right, Symbol, Expected ex-dividend date of special dividend, Expected payout amount of special dividend.
NOTE: this file only contains upcoming confirmed special dividends.
Special Dividends and the "12.5" Rule
ORATS' dividend forecasting feed fully conforms to the OCC "12.5" rule on special dividends and includes/excludes dividends in accordance with the rule.
Here are some actual examples using the contents of the ORATSSpecialDividends.txt file:
GORO currently does not pay a dividend at regular intervals, however a 0.03 special dividend has been declared (denoted with a 1 in the frequency column), going ex-dividend on 1/12/2011.
This scenario is represented in ORATSStockDivForecasts.txt as follows :
GORO 2011-01-12 0.03 1
GORO 2011-01-01 0 4
LPHI currently pays a dividend at quarterly intervals. In addition, a 0.04 special dividend has been declared (denoted with a 1 in the frequency column), going ex-dividend on 1/27/2011.
This scenario is represented in ORATSStockDivForecasts.txt as follows :
LPHI 2011-01-27 0.04 1
LPHI 2011-02-02 0.2 4
LPHI 2011-05-04 0.2258 4
LPHI 2011-08-03 0.2519 4
LPHI 2011-11-02 0.2777 4
LPHI 2012-02-02 0.3024 4
LPHI 2012-05-03 0.3253 4
LPHI 2012-08-02 0.3458 4
LPHI 2012-11-01 0.3631 4
LPHI 2013-02-01 0.3768 4
LPHI 2013-05-03 0.3862 4
LPHI 2013-08-02 0.3911 4
LPHI 2013-11-01 0.3913 4
STD currently pays a dividend at quarterly intervals. In addition, a 0.13 special dividend has been declared, going ex-dividend on 1/12/2011.
This dividend appears in the ORATSSpecialDividends.txt (see example above), but is EXCLUDED from the ORATSStockDivForecasts.txt file due to its payout amount.
This scenario is represented in ORATSStockDivForecasts.txt as follows :
STC 2014-12-15 0.05 1
STD 2011-01-26 0.1408 4
STD 2011-04-27 0.1373 4
STD 2011-07-27 0.1344 4
STD 2011-10-26 0.1319 4
STD 2012-01-26 0.13 4
STD 2012-04-26 0.1284 4
STD 2012-07-26 0.1274 4
STD 2012-10-25 0.1267 4
STD 2013-01-25 0.1265 4
STD 2013-04-26 0.1267 4
STD 2013-07-26 0.1273 4
STD 2013-10-25 0.1284 4
A thorough explanation of the rule can be found here :
ADR's
An ADR dividend can have two different payout amounts attributed to it, a gross and a net. The net is the amount being paid to US investors of the ADR. ORATS dividend feeds use the net amount as the base for forecasting future dividend payments.
More at https://info.orats.com/dividends and https://blog.orats.com/dividend-forecasting-using-implied-dividends
Disclaimer:
The opinions and ideas presented herein are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice tailored to your investment objectives. You should not rely solely on any content herein and we strongly encourage you to discuss any trades or investments with your broker or investment adviser, prior to execution. None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Option trading and investing involves risk and is not suitable for all investors.
All opinions are based upon information and systems considered reliable, but we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy, and such information should not be relied upon as such. We are under no obligation to update or correct any information herein. All statements and opinions are subject to change without notice.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. We do not, will not and cannot guarantee any specific outcome or profit. All traders and investors must be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed herein.
Owners, employees, directors, shareholders, officers, agents or representatives of ORATS may have interests or positions in securities of any company profiled herein. Specifically, such individuals or entities may buy or sell positions, and may or may not follow the information provided herein. Some or all of the positions may have been acquired prior to the publication of such information, and such positions may increase or decrease at any time. Any opinions expressed and/or information are statements of judgment as of the date of publication only.
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Be sure to read the OCCs Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options to learn more about options trading.
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