Term Structure of Implied Volatility

ORATS summarizes the term structure parameters using the implied volatility at-the-money for each expiration. The summarized IV term skew can then be compared to the actual expiration IVs to observe any outlier months and the shape of the term structure […]

Estimating the Implied Volatility After Earnings

ORATS calculates what the implied volatility (IV) may fall to after expiration. Consider the graph below: In blue are the actual at-the-money IVs and in red are the ORATS post earnings IV. The first three expiration dates are before earnings and […]

Expected Move in Stocks at Earnings

ORATS calculates the expected earnings move in stocks based on options prices. We calculate the move by adding the at-the-money call and put (the straddle) and subtract the expected value of the straddle after earnings announcement. The expected straddle price […]

Technical Analysis Using Options Data

SPY stock price on top of implied and realized volatilities. Do you see any patterns? Implied volatility of the SPY, much like the VIX, normally rises as the SPY price falls. In times of calm, when volatility is flat or […]

Are Investors Turning to QQQs for Protection?

The perennial favorite in put protection, SPY is being challenged by tail risk upstart QQQ. The ORATS measurement of skew has been falling in SPY recently and rising in QQQ to where the two measurements are almost equal. Skew measures […]

QQQ Puts Get Pricey

There has been an interesting shift in how options investors value puts since the February VIX debacle. The put call skew was falling as the markets rallied into January 2018. Then, February happened. Slope rose and stayed that way. Recently, […]